Folding Aces Pre Flop

The above title may sound a little absurd as for most poker players folding aces pre flop is usually out of the question. Obviously in most games folding a pair of aces pre flop is a silly thing to do since you’re at least 80% favourite of winning the hand against any other hand. Still there is one particular case in which folding aces pre flop would be the best decision you could ever make.

General Scenario

Let’s say you are in a satellite for a big tournament, the top 25 qualify for the tournament and you have 225,000 chips with the chip leader holding 280,000. You’re currently placed third in chips in the tournament and there are still 26 people left, smallest stack has 30,000 and blinds are 5K and 10K. At this point the chances of you not grabbing a seat are remote in fact even if you sit out at this point you have a 99% chance you’ll earn your seat.

The Round

Ok so here’s the scenario, you’re small blind and someone in an early position raises to 3BB, chip leader goes all in, it’s your turn next and you’re sitting on aces. Will you call all in risking your whole tournament on a possible 80% chance of winning the hand, or simply fold ?

It’s a tough one but if you think through the odds then the answer is staring you right in the face. Fold, fold, fold! The reason being simple, if you have a 99% chance of qualifying for the tournament why would you decrease your chances to 80%. There’s no logic in going in, even though you have a high chance of winning the pot. Sure if he’s got AK or AQ you’ve probably got it covered but still it would be a bad decision to call all in even with pocket aces in that situation. There’s no way you’re not qualifying if you sit out and you’re putting yourself on an 80% while you already have a 99% chance of earning your seat.

Going All In

The above scenario is unlikely to happen to most players so admittedly in most games folding pocket aces would be the wrong move to make. However those of us who’ve played a little more extensively will know that there are always situations where folding big play cards is the right thing to do. In this special satellite situation where there’s a big difference between ending in 26th and 25th you should never risk it all.

You should play extremely tight, try to get involved as little as possible. There’s no need to keep on winning pots since you have the seat assured, finishing in second place would be exactly the same as finishing in 22th place, so why risk it.